Posted by: energyblogwalter | April 18, 2006

For Big Oil, it’s a scary search :: Toronto Star April 18th, 2006

Hello,

First off my apologies for the length of this email. I just think the
oil issues are going to get more scary. This email is for your
information. I’ve cited a few links for more details. If nothing
else, please take a look at the Peak Oil Primer at
http://www.energybulletin.net/primer.php . I enjoyed your article,
“For Big Oil, it’s a scary search” but the Canadian ramifications of
such are not as clear. I think a peak at the Peak Oil issue though,
will help your future analysis.

I’d recommend www.energybulletin.net, and www.peakoil.net to start.
I’d loan you my End of Suburbia DVD or even better invite you to get a
ticket for the Oil Crash documentary about to show in the Hotdocs
festival from end of April www.hotdocs.ca . I got my ticket for April
30th for $10 but there is also a free show after. Check the hotdocs
website for Oil Crash. Who made it? Some apparently well known
European journalists who again couldn’t believe that this wasn’t being
reported. Where’s 60 minutes or the Toronto Star when we need them?
Why are we so asleep? I don’t know.

I just don’t understand why the news media in general refuses to
investigate the issues surrounding Peak Oil. Peak Oil is the
mid-point of available oil in the world, not the end of oil, however
after its availability declines in geological reality year after year.
So our demand for oil will outstrip supply, and much chaos will
ensue. This is work from oil analysts, geologists and professors.

Oddly enough Cuba had an artificial Peak Oil event when the Soviet
Union collapsed and oil imports also ended. How they have handled
their domestic issues was a surprise to me, in spite of the communist
ideology to become a more localized system. I would never have known
had I not been interested in Peak Oil. Here’s a good link:
http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/articles/657

Since the demand for oil is so important to the world’s economic and
currency markets, these will not be sustainabe and will crash at some
point. How can they continue if the oil eventually reduces by -2% to
-7% a year? What kind of a market economy survives in that
environment? How will we live? Sounds like a Second Depression.

Even if tar sands oil is added, that’s only at a maximum of another 5
mill barrels a day to make up for a world currently of 84 mill barrels
a day. Also it’s not efficient, losing 60% of the gas energy in
production used to boil water to wash out the sand. Energy Returned
on Energy Invested is 3:2, so 2 barrels of oil gets you 3 back. It’s
gas limited. When gas peaks so does the tar sands. Again, this is
not in the news. Odd.

Even with sweet crude giving a 20:1 ERoEI (which is why oil runs the
world) better to leave it in the ocean for now as a savings account
for Canada rather than burn it up in the few years it would be used.
Better for our long term health care let alone Newfoundland.

Check this http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/4/15/72931/5527 for
the Latest IEA news regarding supply and production curves.
Eventually with no more swing oil producers there is no room for oil
prices to go anywhere but up.

This doesn’t have to be a disaster, but what if this happens soon and
we’re not prepared? Why are not more governments talking about this?
Other than Sweden,

from www.peakoil.net website:
“”” Sweden first to break dependence on oil! New programme presented
The Swedish prime minister announced on Tuesday that the government
would appoint a commission that will try to make Sweden independent of
oil by 2020. Ministers are discussing Peak Oil and ASPO now gets
letters of congratulations for turning Sweden into a new direction. (
Article by minister from Oct 1 )
http://www.sweden.gov.se/sb/d/3212/a/51058 “””

or perhaps even city governments like San Francisco

from www.energybulletin.net website:
“”” San Francisco Becomes First U.S. City to Pass Peak Oil Resolution
http://www.energybulletin.net/15086.html “””

or even American research on the effects of Peak Oil hidden for months
then released online now

“”” Robert L. Hirsch, R. Bezdek, R. Wendling, Peaking Of World Oil
Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management, February 2005,
online at
www.mnforsustain.org/oil_peaking_of_world_oil_production_study_hirsch.htm
( or any google search for Hirsch report pdf) “””

or even the US Army and the Pentagon (!!?) calling for conservation of
energy. Not your typical environmental group!

“”” US Army: Peak Oil and the Army’s future
http://www.energybulletin.net/13737.html “””

“”” Pentagon seminars seek solutions to U.S. oil ‘addiction’
http://www.energybulletin.net/14469.html “””

Your article reflects some of these issues, but it would be far more
interesting for you and every reader get to know that they should
start planning now, and not wait for the next terrorist attack or Mid
East issue. I mean, we’re relying on these kinds of unstable
countries for our stable society? Does that make any sense? What
happens when they fail?

Once again please take a look at the Peak Oil Primer from
http://www.energybulletin.net/primer.php as it covers many issues very
well. In fact the energybulletin webpage may even become your new
homepage 😉

Best Regards,
Walter

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Responses

  1. reply from April 20th, 2006: [edited]

    Don't know if it's appropriate to put personal email online.  So I'll just note here that I received an email from David Olive in good humor regarding my lengthy email on Peak Oil issues, thanking for the many links I sent and will hopefully "get more fully on the case".  I was glad to read that at least he had heard of it and also a national politician he had talked to as well.  I remain hopeful.

  2. Sent May 5th, 2006

    Hello Mr Olive,

    Just two more links. I’ll not keep bugging you about it, just FYI 😉
    Here are two links recently with interviews of Matthew Simmons, an
    investment banker and author of Twilight in the Desert. Again harping
    on Peak Oil, but I think more in line with your business articles, and
    therefore probably easier to deal with.

    Given our country’s odd timing with the Harper government, it’s
    interesting to note that we may need a government of world vision and
    opportunity without the expertise to lead us there.

    http://www.financialsense.com/transcriptions/Simmons.html (aug 6, 2005)
    http://www.financialsense.com/transcriptions/2006/0429simmons.html
    (april 29, 2006)

    Hope that helps
    Walter


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