Posted by: energyblogwalter | May 10, 2006

The cut-and-run scenario in Iraq :: Toronto Star May 9th, 2006

The cut-and-run-scenario in Iraq

Email to Richard Gywn;

Hi, just some thoughts regarding your article, The cut-and-run
scenario on Iraq:

Another tipping point in Iraq not mentioned, will be the issue of Peak
Oil, (www.energybulletin.net/primer.php), and how with a western world
slapped back and reduced to local issues, how would Iraq fair without
foreign input, miliarty or otherwise? Not so well I assume. This is
all the insurgency has to wait for.

Only when Saudi oil depleats will the world really feel the Peak Oil
effect. There may also be political issues that make a Peak Oil Lite
which will also effect Iraq and all of us too, (more hurricanes, more
events in Nigeria etc)

With Iraq oil off market or reduced compared to its heyday, it can not
be a player in helping bridge the demand-gap for oil. If Bush’s plan
had worked, the USA would have had another supply line. Without it,
the USA’s ability to extend it’s policies abroad are greatly reduced,
with side effects everywhere. They are there to stabilize the country
but the longer it takes the more likely they will fail in bringing the
oil online in time for themselves or others. This is in contrast to
the need of nation building taking many years. This does not seem to
be a priority from an oil POV however. Unfortunatley in missing the
need to nation-build as the iniital and most important set military
objective, both bringing the oil online and making a stable country
possible will now both fail. I believe that had the military planned
for the peace or anything at all, the outcome would be far more
positive today.

Some great links recently with interviews of Matthew Simmons, an
investment banker and former advisor to President Bush and now author
of “Twilight in the Desert” regarding the Saudi Arabia oil issues
links are here below as well as his main website of speeches:

http://www.financialsense.com/transcriptions/Simmons.html (aug 6, 2005)
http://www.financialsense.com/transcriptions/2006/0429simmons.html
(april 29, 2006)
http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/research.aspx?Type=msspeeches (various)

Hope that helps

Walter

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